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Is Spring Training performance a good predictor
for the regular season? March 30, 2005 Based on past research, Spring Training doesn’t tell us much about the regular season. It doesn’t really relate
to the regular season if players or teams have poor or average Spring Training camps. In fact, earlier this
month two former GMs made virtually the same comment. In separate interviews, Dallas Green and Steve Phillips
said the worst time to make player judgments are Spring Training and September call-ups.
Nevertheless, that past research did find one exception. A hitter that has a tremendous Spring Training does
correlate to a better than normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a positive difference
between their Spring Training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more alerts
us to a step forward in the coming season.
We looked at hitters with 100 or more career regular season AB and with 36 or more 2005
Spring Training AB through the Spring Training games of Monday, March 28, 2005.
Here are the top 30 hitters who meet our criteria that predict a better season. Note four Chicago White Sox
hitters in the top 13, though they have their Spring Training home in Tucson, the highest altitude of all the
Spring Training cities.
| Name |
Team |
Diff |
Spring |
Career |
| Jones, Andruw |
Atl |
0.682 |
1.175 |
0.493 |
| Gross, Gabe |
Tor |
0.639 |
0.949 |
0.310 |
| Lee, Carlos |
Mil |
0.487 |
0.975 |
0.488 |
| White, Rondell |
Det |
0.407 |
0.878 |
0.471 |
| Monroe, Craig |
Det |
0.384 |
0.841 |
0.457 |
| Garcia, Jesse |
SD |
0.374 |
0.674 |
0.300 |
| Borchard, Joe |
CWS |
0.357 |
0.689 |
0.332 |
| Gotay, Ruben |
KC |
0.344 |
0.719 |
0.375 |
| Rowand, Aaron |
CWS |
0.334 |
0.809 |
0.475 |
| Garciaparra, Nomar |
ChC |
0.331 |
0.880 |
0.549 |
| Everett, Carl |
CWS |
0.327 |
0.800 |
0.473 |
| Burrell, Pat |
Phi |
0.322 |
0.792 |
0.470 |
| Ozuna, Pablo |
CWS |
0.313 |
0.646 |
0.333 |
| Peralta, Johnny |
Cle |
0.308 |
0.630 |
0.322 |
| Terrero, Luis |
Ari |
0.303 |
0.659 |
0.356 |
| Branyan, Russell |
Mil |
0.301 |
0.780 |
0.479 |
| Glaus, Troy |
Ari |
0.286 |
0.783 |
0.497 |
| Young, Michael |
Tex |
0.273 |
0.706 |
0.433 |
| Ortiz, David |
Bos |
0.269 |
0.786 |
0.517 |
| Bocachica, Hiram |
Oak |
0.263 |
0.639 |
0.376 |
| Suzuki, Ichiro |
Sea |
0.261 |
0.704 |
0.443 |
| Blake, Casey |
Cle |
0.250 |
0.689 |
0.439 |
| Piazza, Mike |
NYM |
0.249 |
0.811 |
0.562 |
| Polanco, Placido |
Phi |
0.246 |
0.656 |
0.410 |
| Cuddyer, Mike |
Min |
0.242 |
0.675 |
0.433 |
| Matthews Jr., Gary |
Tex |
0.241 |
0.627 |
0.386 |
| Pujols, Albert |
StL |
0.236 |
0.860 |
0.624 |
| Thome, Jim |
Phi |
0.226 |
0.795 |
0.569 |
| Wigginton, Ty |
Pit |
0.221 |
0.645 |
0.424 |
| Wilson, Craig |
Pit |
0.210 |
0.707 |
0.497 |
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