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John Dewan's Stat of the Week

 

A Strike on Every Pitch?

March 20, 2015

If Kyle Lohse was pitching to Jose Altuve with Jonathon Lucroy behind the plate and Bill Miller umping, would every pitch be called a strike? Not quite, but this combination would produce one of the highest percentages of called strikes on borderline pitches according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Strike Zone Plus/Minus System. Based on their tendencies from 2012-2014, that combination would turn a pitch with a 50 percent chance of being called a strike with four neutral participants into a pitch with a 56.4 percent chance of being called a strike.

Here are those parties’ Strike Zone Runs Saved totals from the 2012-2014 seasons:

Extreme Extra Strike Earners, 2012-2014
Participant Pos Strike Zone Runs Saved
Jonathan Lucroy Catcher 43
Kyle Lohse Pitcher 7
Jose Altuve Batter 6
Bill Miller Umpire 41

 

Conversely, Jordan Lyles pitching to Dustin Pedroia with Kurt Suzuki catching and Paul Schrieber umping might result in a walk every time! OK, once again, not quite, but those four are among the most extreme in earning fewer strikes than expected. On that same 50/50 pitch, they would earn a strike call only 44.3 percent of the time. Compared to the extreme strike earners from above, these four would earn a strike 27 percent (56.4 percent divided by 44.3 percent minus 1.0) less often on borderline pitches.

Here are their totals from 2012-2014:

Extreme Extra Ball Earners, 2012-2014
Participant Pos Strike Zone Runs Saved
Kurt Suzuki Catcher -34
Jordan Lyles Pitcher -5
Dustin Pedroia Batter -8
Paul Schrieber Umpire -36

 

Our Strike Zone Runs Saved component of Defensive Runs Saved converts extra strikes and balls into run values based on the difference in run expectancy between a called ball and a called strike in a neutral count. That and all of the Strike Zone Runs Saved methodology is fully explained in The Fielding Bible—Volume IV, which is available now.


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 TitlePublished Date
Edit A Strike on Every Pitch? Mar 20 2015
Edit Could Jonathan Lucroy Be As Good As Yadier Molina? Mar 06 2015
Edit Who Will Be The 2015 Statistical Leaders? Feb 26 2015
Edit Shift or Get Off the Pot Feb 13 2015
Edit The Best Projected Defensive Infield and Outfield Feb 06 2015
Edit Let's Eliminate The Shift Jan 30 2015
Edit The Most Pitcher & Hitter Friendly Umpires Jan 16 2015
Edit The Best Baserunning Team in MLB Jan 09 2015
Edit Are Defensive Runs Saved Predictive? Dec 31 2014
Edit The Downside of the Recent Padres Acquisitions Dec 19 2014
Edit The Flat Bat Award 2014 Dec 04 2014
Edit Mark Buehrle – One of the Most Durable Pitchers of All Time Nov 25 2014
Edit Is Madison Bumgarner the World's #1 Starting Pitcher? Nov 14 2014
Edit Giants Defensive Positioning a Big Assist in Game 7 Victory Nov 05 2014
Edit The 2014 Fielding Bible Awards Oct 30 2014
Edit Who Gives a Shift? Oct 23 2014
Edit Who are the 2014 Fielding Bible Award / Gold Glove Contenders? (Part II) Oct 06 2014
Edit Who are the 2014 Fielding Bible Award / Gold Glove Contenders? (Part I) Oct 01 2014
Edit Pitchers with the Best and Worst Run Support Sep 18 2014
Edit Which teams have come on in the second half? Sep 09 2014
Edit Instant Replay Sep 02 2014
Edit Top Defensive Players for 2014 Aug 20 2014
Edit Who Are The 2014 MVP Candidates? Aug 08 2014
Edit How Do Shifts Affect League-Wide Batting Averages? Jul 25 2014
Edit The Best and Worst Baserunners in 2014 Jul 18 2014
Edit The White Sox Blow Another Lead Jul 10 2014
Edit Shifts Against Right-Handed Hitters Jun 26 2014
Edit Cannon Arms in 2014 Jun 10 2014
Edit The Most Improved Defensive Teams Jun 06 2014
Edit How Many More No-Hitters This Year? May 29 2014
Edit Rookie of the Year – Tanaka or Abreu? May 16 2014
Edit Can the National League Reverse a 10-Year Trend? May 09 2014
Edit Who Are the Best and Worst Defensive Teams So Far? Apr 25 2014
Edit Shifts Still on the Rise Apr 18 2014
Edit Can the First 10 Games Predict Playoff Chances? Apr 11 2014
Edit Who Will Be The 2014 Statistical Leaders? Mar 31 2014
Edit Can Spring Training Statistics Predict Breakout Power Seasons? Mar 25 2014
Edit Who Will Be The Best Defenders In 2014? Mar 11 2014
Edit Sochi Olympics - Dominant Countries Feb 25 2014
Edit United States on Track for Most Olympic Medals Feb 17 2014
Edit Sochi Predictions Feb 10 2014
Edit Super Bowl Predictor System Jan 30 2014
Edit Throwing Strikes Jan 20 2014
Edit Cannon Arms in 2013 Jan 10 2014
Edit Teams that Best Controlled the Running Game Dec 30 2013
Edit Opponent OPS and the Cy Young Award Dec 20 2013
Edit The Flat Bat Award 2013 Dec 09 2013
Edit Tim Lincecum Breaks Our Defensive Rankings Nov 19 2013
Edit Who Was the Real AL MVP? Nov 15 2013
Edit Making a Great Defensive Play Then Leading Off the Next Inning Nov 05 2013
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