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Archived Stat of the Week

 

Who is hot enough this Spring to carry it into the regular season?

March 28, 2006

Spring Training doesn’t often predict the regular season.  For example, does anyone really believe the White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now?

 

But there is one thing in Spring Training that can tell us something about the season ahead. A hitter that has a great Spring Training often goes on to have a better than normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a positive difference between their Spring Training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more alerts us to a step forward in the coming season.

 

We analyzed hitters with both a minimum of 175 career regular season at-bats and with a minimum of 35 Spring Training at-bats (through Spring Training games of Monday, March 27, 2006) and found 36 possible players for an above-average season.

 

The chart below shows the results.  Note we did not include statistics from the World Baseball Classic which may leave some players short of the minimum 35 Spring Training AB necessary for our analysis.

 
Slugging Percentage Compared
Spring Training 2006  vs. Previous Career
 
 
 
Name
 
 
Team
 
 
Difference  
Spring
Training
Slugging
 
Career
Slugging
Kevin Mench Tex .558 1.042 .484
Edwin Encarnacion Cin .478   .914 .436
Eric Hinske Tor .435   .865 .430
Aramis Ramirez ChC .430   .911 .481
Casey Kotchman LAA .372   .756 .384
Eric Munson Hou .364   .773 .409
Brandon Inge Det .352   .731 .379
Richie Sexson Sea .327   .857 .530
Aaron Boone Cle .326   .762 .436
Vance Wilson Det .318   .683 .365
J.J. Hardy Mil .316   .700 .384
Joe McEwing KC .311   .667 .356
Curtis Granderson Det .308   .784 .476
Corey Koskie Mil .295   .750 .455
Angel Berroa KC .291   .690 .399
Jim Thome CWS .280   .842 .562
Raul Ibanez Sea .275   .735 .460
Doug Mientkiewicz KC .269   .674 .405
Lance Niekro SF .264   .723 .459
Jason Ellison SF .264   .627 .363
Orlando Hudson Ari .256   .674 .418
Travis Hafner Cle .255   .811 .556
Ryan Doumit Pit .252   .650 .398
Grady Sizemore Cle .250   .720 .470
Jose Castillo Pit .247   .639 .392
Steve Finley SF .245   .692 .447
Jason Dubois Cle .239   .682 .443
Ryan Howard Phi .233   .800 .567
Dustan Mohr Bos .231   .657 .426
Reggie Taylor Det .230   .611 .381
Mark Ellis Oak .228   .639 .411
David Newhan Bal .227   .615 .388
Vladimir Guerrero LAA .224   .811 .587
Mike Cameron SD .217   .659 .442
Jason Tyner Min .209   .514 .305
Eric Byrnes Ari .201   .638 .437

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